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Crypto and equities reported a mixed performance for the last week with a little bit of decoupling. Overall, we saw stable valuations without any significant moves.
Bitcoin ended the week slightly lower by more than 2%, closed at around 23.289 on Friday, while NASDAQ closed at 12.657, a more than 2% increase from the previous week’s close. ETH remained in bullish sentiment, again fueling the upcoming Merge in mid-September 2022.
As projected, the FED raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 2.5% at their last monetary policy meeting. We expect they will continue to raise the fund rates in September, targeting 3.5–3.75% by year-end, before beginning to cut them in the second half of 2023.
The US is now officially in recession, as its last GDP figure, reported on 28th, 2022, contracted for the second straight quarter, declining by 0,90%. Higher rates are supposed to slow the economy and cool inflation by reducing asset prices and raising borrowing costs, causing less spending, and bringing the economy to a recession — so it seems the FED’s action is doing its job apart from cooling the inflation yet.
Once again, the US employment data indicated the labor market remains rock-solid. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 528,000 jobs in July 2022, the largest since February, lifting the level of employment above its pre-pandemic level. As a result, we may see the inflation rate close to 10% in July’s reading.
The US FED will then feel even more confident to further hike rates in September, as strong employment contradicts the US being in a recession. It must be pointed out; however, the recent payrolls hike was led mainly by the leisure and hospitality sectors, most of them at restaurants and bars. Interest-rate-sensitive businesses like finance, manufacturing, housing, retail, and technology sectors are laying off workers, as was reported by higher-than-expected jobless claims for the last week.
This may indicate that US employment will begin to see a correction from September 2022, when the seasonal workers leave, and higher rates begin to bite in.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Source: Yahoo Finance
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US) — shared areas indicate U.S. recessions.
Overall, the crypto market sentiment (measured by Crypto Fear & Greed Index) hit 30/100, indicating fear continues to prevail. The total crypto market cap was slightly above $1 trillion, without a big change compared to the previous week. We also see ETH continues to outperform, with its 19% share it is gaining higher dominance day by day, while Bitcoin loses.
Next to Watch out for: This week, on Wednesday, August 10th, 2022, we will get the US CPI measure for July 2022. The next monetary policy meetings are scheduled for 08th September 2022 for the ECB and 20–21st September 2022 for the FED. Both are expected to hike rates further.
Remember, the market tends to be 1-step ahead of any major event, so do not miss a new opportunity and stay alert to the market developments. It will be important to remain selective on your investments during this monetary policy shift, and as it is with every market correction, be ready to enter the market at much lower valuations.
Know when to enter the market — be ready — get more insights, trends, and research reports at altFINS.com.
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